On June 5, PESA held a Government Affairs Townhall with Jim Ellis, Senior Political Analyst, Business-Industry Political Action Committee (BIPAC), focusing on recent state primaries and upcoming 2020 election.
Ellis opened with an overview of current Presidential polling and noted that the race between incumbent President and Democratic candidate Vice President Biden is far from over. In particular, due to Coronavirus, Ellis is paying attention to Democratic strategy focused on vote-by-mail and how this could affect outcomes.
President Trump’s Reelection Strategy
Ellis discussed President Trump’s strategy for reelection and said the Republican base is currently more enthusiastic than Democratic base. Specifically, Americans trust President Trump with the economy. Although COVID-19 decimated the American economy, it is going to improve before the 2020 election which will be focal point of the Trump campaign.
Ellis believes that President Trump must win 5 key states to ensure his reelection: Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Florida and North Carolina represent swing states which a Republican President cannot lose. Arizona however is the most in danger of becoming Democratic due to demographic changes. Texas, he believes, is less in danger due to strong ties to the oil and gas industry. However, both Texas and Georgia are Republican states moving towards becoming swing states. Ellis also noted that President Trump would only need 1 of the “Great Lakes” states (Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin) if he wins his core 5 to carry the election.
A Presidential Path for Vice President Biden
For Vice President Biden, Ellis simply pointed at the core 5. If Vice President BIden were to win any of the following: Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia or North Carolina he would carry the Presidency.
Without any of that core 5, the Vice President would need a bigger margin in Maine and need to carry The 3 Great Lake States previously mentioned.
What’s In Store for the Senate and House
Ellis covered some important Senate races and their implications:
-Arizona – Sen. McSally is in danger and whoever wins Sen. McCain’s seat will have a four-year term -Georgia – watching the apraxia last election taking place Dem need a net gain of 3 or 4 if he does not win to take over the senate
-Alabama – Sessions is attempting a comeback for a full 6-year term – Coach Tuberville is currently polling ahead of sessions and endorsed by President Trump. If incumbent Sen. Jones holds on, Democrats have an opportunity to regain majority
-Colorado is moving to the left and Sen. Gardner is in danger of losing his seat
-Kentucky – Ellis predicts Sen. McConnell will win easily
-North Carolina– Voters have defeated more senators in the modern history, only two senators have been reelected which means incumbent is unlikely to stay seated
-Maine – Sen. Collins under pressure from voters
Ellis said Republicans have a chance to win majority in the House of Representatives but both parties have an opportunity to sweep the two branches. He concluded that the whole country is in play and Republicans will focus their platform on rebuilding economy whilst Democratic strategy will focus on healthcare.
Please join the upcoming Government Affairs Townhall with Rep. Michael Burgess M.D. (TX) on June 19 at 9 a.m. CST.